India rates: Near-term inflation to prove sticky
Inflation still above RBI’s projection.
Group Research - Econs, Radhika Rao30 Oct 2024
Article image
Photo credit: Unsplash/Adobe Stock Photo
Read More

A tug-of-power between demand and supply forces is likely to see the latter dominate the course for CPI inflation in the near-term (read our previous note). Episodes of strong unseasonal rains have impacted perishables’ costs this month along with passthrough of import tax hikes on oilseeds. These will push the 3QFY25 (4Q24) quarterly inflation above the RBI’s projection for a second consecutive quarter, to above 5% compared to the official forecast at 4.8% yoy. Core inflation is likely to stay sticky on base effects and higher precious metals, with the annual average to linger around 3.5%. Demand-pull forces are relatively more subdued, with high frequency indicators including auto sales, real wage growth, sentiments, and guidance by FMCG sector players pointing to a softer segway into the seasonally strong festive period.

Beyond the short-term, we expect the supply-driven impact to subside in 4QFY25 (1Q25), helping to take the headline towards mid-4%. Considering evolving risks, we modestly revise up our annual forecast to 4.7% yoy (from 4.3% earlier) and expect a moderation to 4.1% in FY26. We had noted here that October inflation release (in mid-Nov), strength of festive demand and 2QFY GDP (out late-Nov) will be crucial inputs for December’s RBI MPC meeting. The start of rate cuts will be delayed to February 2025, on the assumption of fading supply distortions. Financial markets are meanwhile monitoring a confluence of catalysts, spanning from the upcoming US election, trickle of firmer US data (which has stoked a repricing in rate expectations) and RBI Governor’s cautious commentary. Short and long-end of the INR yield curve have risen in the past week, with the FAR segment witnessing modest incremental outflows in Oct. As yields adjust, attractive levels will draw demand as rupee denominated benchmark bonds are currently the highest yielding in the region.

The INR is back below 84.0 but intraday volatility is capped by intervention risks. Our FX Strategist views the greenback as overbought on near-term technicals. Separately, the RBI’s half-yearly Report of FX Reserves reinforced our observation here that the current reserve stock is well buffered on various adequacy ratios, including the ratio of volatile capital flows (including cumulative portfolio inflows and outstanding short-term debt) to reserves, which increased marginally from 69.8% in Mar24 to 70.1% in end-Jun24.

Radhika Rao

Senior Economist – Eurozone, India, Indonesia
[email protected]



Subscribe here to receive our economics & macro strategy materials.
To unsubscribe, please click here.

Topic

GENERAL DISCLOSURE/ DISCLAIMER (For Macroeconomics, Currencies, Interest Rates)

GENERAL DISCLOSURE/ DISCLAIMER (For Macroeconomics, Currencies, Interest Rates)

The information herein is published by DBS Bank Ltd and/or DBS Bank (Hong Kong) Limited (each and/or collectively, the “Company”). It is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but the Company does not make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to its accuracy, completeness, timeliness or correctness for any particular purpose. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This research is prepared for general circulation.  Any recommendation contained herein does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific addressee. The information herein is published for the information of addressees only and is not to be taken in substitution for the exercise of judgement by addressees, who should obtain separate legal or financial advice. The Company, or any of its related companies or any individuals connected with the group accepts no liability for any direct, special, indirect, consequential, incidental damages or any other loss or damages of any kind arising from any use of the information herein (including any error, omission or misstatement herein, negligent or otherwise) or further communication thereof, even if the Company or any other person has been advised of the possibility thereof. The information herein is not to be construed as an offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities, futures, options or other financial instruments or to provide any investment advice or services. The Company and its associates, their directors, officers and/or employees may have positions or other interests in, and may effect transactions in securities mentioned herein and may also perform or seek to perform broking, investment banking and other banking or financial services for these companies.  The information herein is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity that is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country, or other jurisdiction (including but not limited to citizens or residents of the United States of America) where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.  The information is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction (including but not limited to the United States of America) where such an offer or solicitation would be contrary to law or regulation.

[#for Distribution in Singapore] This report is distributed in Singapore by DBS Bank Ltd (Company Regn. No. 196800306E) which is Exempt Financial Advisers as defined in the Financial Advisers Act and regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. DBS Bank Ltd may distribute reports produced by its respective foreign entities, affiliates or other foreign research houses pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations. Where the report is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, DBS Bank Ltd accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore recipients should contact DBS Bank Ltd at 65-6878-8888 for matters arising from, or in connection with the report.

DBS Bank Ltd., 12 Marina Boulevard, Marina Bay Financial Centre Tower 3, Singapore 018982. Tel: 65-6878-8888. Company Registration No. 196800306E.

DBS Bank Ltd., Hong Kong Branch, a company incorporated in Singapore with limited liability. 18th Floor, The Center, 99 Queen’s Road Central, Central, Hong Kong SAR.

DBS Bank (Hong Kong) Limited, a company incorporated in Hong Kong with limited liability.  11th Floor, The Center, 99 Queen’s Road Central, Central, Hong Kong SAR.

Virtual currencies are highly speculative digital "virtual commodities", and are not currencies. It is not a financial product approved by the Taiwan Financial Supervisory Commission, and the safeguards of the existing investor protection regime does not apply.  The prices of virtual currencies may fluctuate greatly, and the investment risk is high. Before engaging in such transactions, the investor should carefully assess the risks, and seek its own independent advice.