A tug-of-power between demand and supply forces is likely to see the latter dominate the course for CPI inflation in the near-term (read our previous note). Episodes of strong unseasonal rains have impacted perishables’ costs this month along with passthrough of import tax hikes on oilseeds. These will push the 3QFY25 (4Q24) quarterly inflation above the RBI’s projection for a second consecutive quarter, to above 5% compared to the official forecast at 4.8% yoy. Core inflation is likely to stay sticky on base effects and higher precious metals, with the annual average to linger around 3.5%. Demand-pull forces are relatively more subdued, with high frequency indicators including auto sales, real wage growth, sentiments, and guidance by FMCG sector players pointing to a softer segway into the seasonally strong festive period.
Beyond the short-term, we expect the supply-driven impact to subside in 4QFY25 (1Q25), helping to take the headline towards mid-4%. Considering evolving risks, we modestly revise up our annual forecast to 4.7% yoy (from 4.3% earlier) and expect a moderation to 4.1% in FY26. We had noted here that October inflation release (in mid-Nov), strength of festive demand and 2QFY GDP (out late-Nov) will be crucial inputs for December’s RBI MPC meeting. The start of rate cuts will be delayed to February 2025, on the assumption of fading supply distortions. Financial markets are meanwhile monitoring a confluence of catalysts, spanning from the upcoming US election, trickle of firmer US data (which has stoked a repricing in rate expectations) and RBI Governor’s cautious commentary. Short and long-end of the INR yield curve have risen in the past week, with the FAR segment witnessing modest incremental outflows in Oct. As yields adjust, attractive levels will draw demand as rupee denominated benchmark bonds are currently the highest yielding in the region.
The INR is back below 84.0 but intraday volatility is capped by intervention risks. Our FX Strategist views the greenback as overbought on near-term technicals. Separately, the RBI’s half-yearly Report of FX Reserves reinforced our observation here that the current reserve stock is well buffered on various adequacy ratios, including the ratio of volatile capital flows (including cumulative portfolio inflows and outstanding short-term debt) to reserves, which increased marginally from 69.8% in Mar24 to 70.1% in end-Jun24.
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