DXY failed to break above 104.5; GBP up on UK Budget hopes
UK budget today, US GDP and ADP too.
Group Research - Econs, Philip Wee30 Oct 2024
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The DXY Index failed to close above 104.5 for a third time over the past week. Despite the best monthly gain in the US consumer confidence index since March 2021, the US Treasury 2Y yield fell for the first time in seven sessions by 4.1 bps to 4.096%. The Jobs Opening and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) reported that job openings fell to 7.44 million in September, its worst level since January 2021. Given the Fed’s observation that fewer job vacancies led to higher unemployment rates, Fed should lower rates by 25 bps to 4.50-4.75% at next week’s FOMC meeting. Additionally, WTI crude oil prices fell 0.3% to USD67.20 per barrel, its lowest level since mid-September. Fears have subsided that the Israel-Iran conflict would not disrupt oil supply amid weak demand from China.

Today, US advance GDP growth is expected to moderate to an annualized 2.9% QoQ saar growth in 3Q24 from 3% in the previous quarter. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow projection fell to 2.8% yesterday from 3.3% last Friday. One possible reason could be the US trade deficit, which widened to USD305 bn in 3Q24, its largest since 2Q22. A drop in today’s ADP Employment to 111k in October from 143k in September should also embolden expectations for a similar decline in Friday’s nonfarm payrolls to 110k in October. We remain mindful that the DXY could reverse this recovery triggered by the surprise jump in payrolls to 254k in September.

GBP/USD rose 0.3% to 1.3015 ahead of today’s UK Budget announcement. With UK CPI inflation down from double-digit levels to below the 2% target, Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves can pivot fiscal policy towards improving economic growth. The IMF has given implicit support for the UK to relax UK’s self-imposed fiscal rule to unleash public investment, namely in infrastructure, to achieve long-term growth. The Bank of England should also complement the Treasury’s effort by reducing monetary policy restriction next week with another 25 bps cut in the bank rate to 4.75%. The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) is also scheduled to report on the GBP22bn fiscal black hole left by from the Conservative Party, which Reeves is expected to more than offset with GBP40 bn of tax hikes and spending cuts. Hence, do not a repeat of the mini-budget crisis that hammered the GBP to a lifetime low in September 2022. This month’s drop in the GBP should be viewed as a correction after a three-month rally.


Quote of the Day
“Courage is not having the strength to go on, it is going on when you don’t have the strength.”
     Theodore Roosevelt

October 30 in history
John L Loud patented the ballpoint pen in 1888.






 

Philip Wee

Senior FX Strategist - G3 & Asia
[email protected]


 

 
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