China Banks – Dividend Narrative Intact
China banks' earnings and dividend payouts remain resilient, proving them to be credible income generators
Chief Investment Office, Yeang Cheng Ling12 Jul 2023
  • China banks have solid capital ratio to weather economic cyclicality
  • China banks’ earnings and dividend payouts are resilient
  • Valuations are at trough, offering attractive upside
  • China banks fit well into our CIO Barbell Strategy construct as an income generator
Article image
Photo credit: Unsplash
Read More

Concerns over lending to local government financing vehicles (LGFV) and property sector have impacted sentiment towards China banks.

China banks have solid capital ratio to weather economic cyclicality. Their capital adequacy ratio stands at 14.9% and Tier-1 capital adequacy ratio at 12.0%. Exposure across all sectors of the economy allows banks to spread out risks and diversify the sector’s mix. China’s economy is still expected to register GDP growth of c.5% for 2023 and 2024, respectively. We believe the negativity regarding LGFV and property sector lending is overblown. The sector’s nonperforming loan ratio has stayed low, between 1.6%-1.7%, since the early part of the last decade and is likely to remain within a manageable range. As a systemically important sector, we believe the government will provide sufficient support when necessary.

Figure 1: China banks are well capitalised

Source: Bloomberg, DBS

China banks’ earnings and dividend payout are resilient. Over the past 12 years, even during prolonged or sharp economic downturns, banking sector’s earnings per share (EPS) and dividends per share (DPS) have remained largely resilient. This further anchors China’s large banks as credible income generators.

The six largest state-owned enterprise banks currently offer investors dividend yields north of 8%. Even if we assume banks earnings were to fall 20% in an extreme bear case scenario, dividend yields will remain attractive at above 6%. Furthermore, at 30% payout ratio, banks are merely distributing the minimum stipulated by the authority. As such, there is upside room for them to raise the payout ratio in the event of an earnings decline.

Valuations are at trough, offering attractive upside. China banks are trading at two standard deviations below mean and nearly 0.4x price-to-book. As the valuations are at low levels (Figure 4) while the fundamentals remain supportive, there is limited downside.

At dividend yields of 7-8% and steep valuation discount, investors are paid to wait. China banks fit well in the income side of our CIO Barbell Strategy construct as they deliver attractive dividend yields and can also be considered as bond proxies. Over time, investing in China banks is attractive as they provide appealing cumulative total returns.


Download the PDF to read the full report.

Topic

Explore more

CIO Perspectives
Disclaimers

This information herein is published by DBS Bank Ltd. (“DBS Bank”) and is for information only.  This publication is intended for DBS Bank and its subsidiaries or affiliates (collectively “DBS”) and clients to whom it has been delivered and may not be reproduced, transmitted or communicated to any other person without the prior written permission of DBS Bank. 

This publication is not and does not constitute or form part of any offer, recommendation, invitation or solicitation to you to subscribe to or to enter into any transaction as described, nor is it calculated to invite or permit the making of offers to the public to subscribe to or enter into any transaction for cash or other consideration and should not be viewed as such.

The information herein may be incomplete or condensed and it may not include a number of terms and provisions nor does it identify or define all or any of the risks associated to any actual transaction. Any terms, conditions and opinions contained herein may have been obtained from various sources and neither DBS nor any of their respective directors or employees (collectively the “DBS Group”) make any warranty, expressed or implied, as to its accuracy or completeness and thus assume no responsibility of it. The information herein may be subject to further revision, verification and updating and DBS Group undertakes no responsibility thereof.

All figures and amounts stated are for illustration purposes only and shall not bind DBS Group. This publication does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific person. Before entering into any transaction to purchase any product mentioned in this publication, you should take steps to ensure that you understand the transaction and has made an independent assessment of the appropriateness of the transaction in light of your own objectives and circumstances. In particular, you should read all the relevant documentation pertaining to the product and may wish to seek advice from a financial or other professional adviser or make such independent investigations as you consider necessary or appropriate for such purposes. If you choose not to do so, you should consider carefully whether any product mentioned in this publication is suitable for you.  DBS Group does not act as an adviser and assumes no fiduciary responsibility or liability for any consequences, financial or otherwise, arising from any arrangement or entrance into any transaction in reliance on the information contained herein.  In order to build your own independent analysis of any transaction and its consequences, you should consult your own independent financial, accounting, tax, legal or other competent professional advisors as you deem appropriate to ensure that any assessment you make is suitable for you in light of your own financial, accounting, tax, and legal constraints and objectives without relying in any way on DBS Group or any position which DBS Group might have expressed in this document or orally to you in the discussion.

Any information relating to past performance, or any future forecast based on past performance or other assumptions, is not necessarily a reliable indicator of future results.

If this publication has been distributed by electronic transmission, such as e-mail, then such transmission cannot be guaranteed to be secure or error-free as information could be intercepted, corrupted, lost, destroyed, arrive late or incomplete, or contain viruses. The sender therefore does not accept liability for any errors or omissions in the contents of the Information, which may arise as a result of electronic transmission. If verification is required, please request for a hard-copy version.

This publication is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.

If you have received this communication by email, please do not distribute or copy this email. If you believe that you have received this e-mail in error, please inform the sender or contact us immediately. DBS Group reserves the right to monitor and record electronic and telephone communications made by or to its personnel for regulatory or operational purposes. The security, accuracy and timeliness of electronic communications cannot be assured.