Market uncertainty amid stubborn inflation; investors look past mixed earnings in Big Tech. The second full week of February continued to see market confidence erode; nonfarm payrolls and inflation surprised to the upside in January, squashing hopes that a Fed pivot might happen anytime soon. Rising geopolitical tension is also shaping up to be one of the themes for this month as US-China tensions simmer over claims that China might be arming Russia in eastern Europe.
Against this backdrop, the earnings season in the US is also proving to be a mixed one, with earnings surprise for S&P 500 companies remaining flat y/y but many reporting margin squeezes. Big Tech was not spared as companies such as Amazon, Alphabet, Apple, and Meta all posted misses on earnings. Nonetheless, investors appear to be looking past current headwinds, in favour of a more optimistic long-term outlook that is being driven by a bottoming in end demand, resilient pricing power, staff size rationalisation and China’s reopening. YTD, the aforementioned tech leaders have had share price performances ranging from c.+6% to +39%.
Equity fund flows: Both EM and DM see mixed flows. Global equity funds posted a modest inflow of USD324m for the week ended 15 February, with both EM and DM seeing flat flows on aggregate. From a regional perspective, flows were more disparate; in the EM space, inflows to Thailand and Vietnam offset redemptions from China (which saw its first consecutive outflow since 2Q22) while positive flows in Europe served as a counterweight to outflows from US equity funds. Japan extended its outflow streak to four consecutive weeks as investors look ahead to a change of leadership in the BOJ, and the central bank possibly ‘normalising’ its ultra-accommodative policies later in the year.
Figure 1: Big Tech at attractive valuations Equity Research Highlights
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