Market pullback offers opportunities, robust earnings from energy companies. After a strong showing in January, markets pared back some gains as macroeconomic data prints defied expectations and pushed back the likelihood of a Fed pause soon. This risk-off sentiment was further exacerbated by a combination of rising geopolitical tension and a gradual but relatively homogenous weakening of earnings growth across markets. Amid this uncertainty, the energy sector has proven particularly resilient; integrated oil majors surprised on the upside during their latest results release, buoyed by the inflationary environment and elevated energy prices that characterised much of 2022.
BP beat estimates on revenue by 26.2% and missed marginally on earnings (-2.5%), recording record annual profits of USD27.7b for 2022. Shell beat earnings estimates by 4.8% and reported its highest profits in 115 years at USD39.9b, which represents a c.100% y/y increase. Not to be outdone, American oil major Exxon Mobil reaped a record USD59b profit for 2022, far eclipsing its previous high of USD45.2b. While recessionary pressures could dampen energy demand this year, we continue to favour the energy sector for their attractive valuations (European majors in particular represent good value) and sustainable dividend yields for the long term.
Equity fund flows: Flows reflect worsening risk sentiment. Global equity funds posted an outflow of USD7.4b for the week ended 8 February; notably EM equity funds recorded their first outflow since mid-December last year. From a country perspective, US and China led the pack in outflows, with both logging 48-week high outflows on the back of renewed Sino-US tensions and interest rate uncertainty. Europe equity funds also saw redemptions after four consecutive weeks of inflows, prompted by a 0.5% hike by the Bank of England and persistent conflict in Ukraine. Japan saw continued outflows over the past three consecutive weeks, with the latest recording a c.USD1b redemption.
Figure 1: Weekly Equity Fund Flows
Equity Research Highlights
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